American Idol's Return Pits Brand Loyalty vs. Market Loyalty

(Update: The overnight metered market rating for this season's "American Idol" premiere came in at a 13.6, which is down by 17% from the prior season's premiere. Comparatively, when last year's season opened, its overnight ratings were down 11% from the prior year, indicating there was an exacerbated decline this year.)

(Update 2: And word comes that the premiere fell by at least 25% in the all-important adults 18-49 demographic, which is a shocking drop. That would absolutely suggest there was more at play than just "age")

Do not believe the excuse being prematurely thrown around—"American Idol" was not inevitably going to suffer a bigger-than-usual ratings decline this year.

Sure, with an aging series—FOX’s "Idol" debuts its eleventh season this week—there is always a slight risk of fans tuning out (and a percentage of "Idol" fans have generally been tuning out each season since its peak several years ago). But with its shortened broadcast cycle and simple formula, "Idol" has largely preserved its standing as an attractive, annual option for television fans. More importantly, it actually ended its tenth season with significant momentum—a trait that had been absent from its prior few cycles and would seemingly be unheard of for such an old series. With all of that considered, anything more than a slight ratings decline would be considered newsworthy.

In the face of non-stop predictions that it would fizzle without star judge Simon Cowell, "American Idol" did the impossible and actually rebounded in every sense of the word last year. Critics loved the new judging dynamic created by Steven Tyler, Jennifer Lopez and Randy Jackson, and they applauded returning showrunner Nigel Lythgoe for tightening the presentation and rediscovering the warmth that had somehow become impalpable in a competition that makes dreams come true. The contestants were more likable, talented and marketable than they had been in years, and the concept of winning "American Idol" seemed to mean something again. After a finale broadcast that saw a year-over-year ratings increase, winner Scotty McCreery’s debut album and singles have actually experienced decent success from a commercial standpoint.

True, there have been some concerns. During "Idol"’s ‘comeback’ season, NBC debuted its new music competition series "The Voice," which drew strong interest from the coveted adults 18-49 demographic for its (albeit absurdly exaggerated) emphasis on vocal talent rather than "looks" and other superfluous qualities. Though it ended its season a bit cold—and its inaugural winner Javier Colon has done absolutely nothing on the charts—it still added saturation to a market long dominated by "Idol." Plus, as NBC’s first legitimate hit in a long time, it was due to receive a promotional blitz; indeed, marketing for the show’s second season, which opens with help from the valuable Super Bowl lead-in this February, has been relentless.

More importantly, "Idol" network FOX this fall debuted its adaptation of UK competition series "The X Factor," which reunited original "Idol" judges Simon Cowell and Paula Abdul and promoted a whopping $5 million prize for the winner. Viewed as a surefire ratings hit, "The X Factor" threatened to become the premiere music competition series on the network and thus turn "Idol" into an after-thought.

"The X Factor" situation did not play out as expected. Viewership was about half of what Simon Cowell publicly forecast (and about half of the "Idol" viewership), and media enthusiasm was greatly lacking. Worse, save for a few short-lived controversies, buzz actually cooled on the show as it progressed, nixing the notion that it simply needed time to click with viewers or that its modest ratings understated its impact on pop culture.

When all was said and done, though it brought welcome improvement to FOX’s fall ratings average, its performance fell short of even the most-pessimistic expectations. Simply, it was not a blockbuster hit.

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And that is where the negative "Idol" forecasts began. Had FOX not aired "The X Factor" and waited until January 2012 to launch the latest round of its annual music competition, anything less than a ratings increase would have been a disappointment due to the momentum from season ten. But it did air "Factor," and people consequently focused on two scenarios: 1) The modest "X Factor" ratings were due to already-waning interest in the saturated genre, which would naturally have impacted the returning "Idol" anyway or 2) By generally underwhelming in its first season, "The X Factor" itself soured the genre, and that will further impact the returning "Idol" (expanding upon the impact of increased market saturation).

As noted from the get-go, the first scenario is not entirely compatible with the reality of "Idol"’s tenth season. Even as "The Voice" started to occupy headlines and steal spotlight, viewers were still invested enough in "Idol" to produce enormous ratings for the season finale.

And if "Idol" was able to survive reasonably-unscathed after cold buzz for its sixth and ninth seasons, why would it more hastily-approach death after a tenth season that overachieved and consequently rekindled the flame of interest in the series?

Meanwhile, though "The X Factor" itself might have been victimized by an attempt to enter a saturated market, its underwhelming bow actually underscored the extent to which fans are (or at least were) still loyal to the "American Idol" brand itself. Not even the presence of original judge (and original draw) Simon Cowell and his fellow original judge Paula Abdul could change the reality that "The X Factor" was not "American Idol." More than twenty million viewers tune into "Idol" telecasts not because they are blind suckers for music reality series but because they are actually invested in "Idol."

No matter what the state and saturation of the music competition genre, a disappointing fate for "Idol" season eleven had not been etched in stone as a mere consequence of age.

That does not mean the other scenario—the execution of and response to "The X Factor" soured fans on the entire genre—is not plausible.

In order to market "The X Factor" effectively, FOX, to some, implicit extent, had to undermine "American Idol." In order to avoid portraying the series like a cheap stunt to bring "Idol" ratings to the fall, it needed to promote "Factor" as equal to—if not bigger than—its flagship. It had to portray Simon Cowell’s return to the genre (in America) as a gigantic event, even though "Idol"’s successful tenth season proved he was not its end-all, be-all. And it had to underscore the stakes of a $5 million prize, which would naturally overshadow the "opportunity" nature of the "Idol" victory.

By not living up to such massive hype and by not compellingly contributing anything not delivered by "Idol," "The X Factor," in many ways, exposed the frivolity and redundancy of the genre. And that, by directly undermining the significance, relevance and value of the "Idol" brand, could adversely impact interest and ratings.

At the same time, lesser buzz and enthusiasm for "The X Factor" and "The Voice" could actually help reinforce interest in "American Idol" by establishing the significance of the brand in breaking out of the genre’s stranglehold.

We’ll find out soon enough.

The key point here is that when ratings for "American Idol"’s eleventh season premiere emerge Thursday morning, they will provide another round of insight into how brand-based demand and loyalty operate in relation to general market sentiment. No matter what "expectations" are making rounds ahead of Wednesday’s premiere, "Idol" ended its tenth season on a positive note and was going to be strong for season eleven.

The overall music competition genre, however, has likely softened, and it is not entirely-implausible that sentiment within the greater market will chip away at the "American Idol" brand.

Given the fact that "The X Factor" still gave FOX a ratings boost in the fall, the network’s decision to launch the show might still be deemed a "winner" even if "Idol" comes back softer. But if the latter happens, observers will still find it hard to refrain from declaring that the network undermined a key product to promote another one.

From the perspective of "American Idol," meanwhile, its ratings health will determine how much vested interest a brand (and its marketers) need to place in sentiment towards competition and the industry at large. To the everyday brand marketer, the case study will thus provide new clarity on the extent to which he "controls his brand’s destiny" amid shifts in the market climate.